Thailand’s 18 GW Renewable Target: Where Things Stand With 72% Fossil Fuel Dependence

The 72% Problem — Why the Transition Is Harder Than It Looks

Thailand runs on natural gas. According to Ember (2025), fossil fuels accounted for over 80% of Thailand’s electricity generation in 2024, with natural gas alone providing around 68%. Solar and wind combined? Just 5.6%, according to BloombergNEF (2025).

That’s the gap between ambition and reality. The government’s draft Power Development Plan 2024 (PDP 2024) — Thailand’s most ambitious renewable energy policy to date — sets a target of 51% renewable electricity by 2037 — more than doubling the roughly 20% share renewables held in 2024. The previous target was just 36%.

Why is gas so dominant? Thailand’s domestic gas fields are depleting, but the infrastructure is already built. The country operates Southeast Asia’s largest LNG import terminals, and imported LNG’s share of total gas consumption is expected to rise from 40% in 2024 to 60% by 2035, per Ember. Replacing that entrenched system isn’t a matter of flipping a switch.

What’s Actually Been Built — 12 Solar Projects as a Case Study

A recent ADB video highlights one concrete example of what Thailand’s renewable buildout looks like on the ground. The Asian Development Bank arranged financing for Gulf Renewable Energy Company Limited (GRRE) to construct 12 projects: eight solar farms and four solar-plus-battery-storage facilities.

According to the AIIB project page, the portfolio totals 393 MW of standalone solar and 256 MW of solar integrated with battery storage — about 649 MW combined. By January 2025, five projects were generating electricity. The remaining seven are expected online within the year.

The projected impact: over 600,000 tons of CO₂ equivalent avoided annually. That’s the equivalent of removing 130,000 petrol cars from Thai roads, or powering 75,000 homes with clean energy instead of coal.

Is 649 MW a lot? For context, Thailand needs to add roughly 50 GW of renewable capacity by 2037 according to Ember’s analysis of the PDP 2024. So these 12 projects represent about 1.3% of the total needed. They’re a meaningful start — but clearly not enough on their own.

Gulf Energy: Mostly Gas, Pivoting to Renewables

It’s worth understanding who’s behind these projects. Gulf Development is Thailand’s largest private power producer, with total capacity exceeding 23 GW across five countries as of 2025, according to its corporate profile. But here’s the nuance: 89% of the company’s revenue still comes from gas-fired plants.

The renewable pivot is real, though. Gulf won more than half of the government’s 5 GW renewable energy auction in 2023, per GrowBeanSprout’s analysis. The company targets 8 GW of renewable capacity by 2033. In February 2026, Gulf secured THB 60 billion (approximately USD 1.9 billion) in financing for 27 renewable energy projects totaling 939 MW, with ADB as the lead arranger.

Gulf’s trajectory mirrors Thailand’s broader challenge. Even the country’s biggest clean energy investor still earns most of its money from fossil fuels. The transition is underway, but it’s gradual.

The Intermittency Gap — Why Battery Storage Is the Bottleneck

Solar panels generate power when the sun shines. Thailand sits near the equator with strong solar irradiance — roughly 1,400–1,600 kWh/m² per year. But monsoon season (May through October) can reduce output by 20–30%, and nobody needs solar power at 2 AM.

That’s where storage comes in. The PDP 2024 calls for 14 GW of energy storage by 2037, alongside the 50 GW of renewable capacity. Yet Thailand’s energy storage market has been slow to develop. According to Energy Storage News (2026), the lack of a liberalized ancillary market has held back utility-scale battery deployment.

EGAT, the state power authority, remains the primary buyer for grid-scale storage. That bottleneck limits how fast the private sector can build. Thailand currently has about 1.5 GW of pumped hydro storage across three stations, with another 2.5 GW in feasibility studies. Electrochemical (battery) storage is growing but remains small-scale.

The ADB-Gulf projects include four solar-plus-battery facilities — a model that could help. These “partial-firm” contracts require projects to guarantee output during specific hours, including 60% capacity overnight. It’s a practical test of whether solar-plus-storage can reliably fill the gap that gas currently occupies.

Feed-in Tariffs and the 5 GW Pipeline

How does Thailand get developers to actually build renewables? Mostly through feed-in tariffs (FiTs). In 2022, the government launched a scheme offering THB 2.17/kWh for solar and THB 2.83/kWh for solar-plus-storage, guaranteed for 25 years. The total procurement target: about 5 GW between 2022 and 2030.

For rooftop solar, the rate is higher. The household net billing rate is 2.20 baht/kWh, set by the ERC in May 2022 (Bangkok Post, 2025). However, the 90 MW purchasing quota was filled in late 2024 and new buyback applications are currently frozen. That’s still well below the retail electricity price of about 4.15 baht/kWh — meaning homeowners save more by consuming their own solar power than by selling surplus to the grid.

Are these tariffs enough? The utility-scale FiT of 2.17 baht (roughly $0.06/kWh) is competitive by regional standards. Thailand’s solar FiT has dropped from $0.34/kWh in 2014 to about $0.066/kWh by 2023, per Ember’s ASEAN analysis (2024). That reflects falling panel costs worldwide. But the 5 GW pipeline has been described as “not really ambitious” by analysts at Apricum, since individual projects can be up to 90 MW — meaning only a handful of developers participate each year.

Thailand’s Climate Targets vs. Reality

Thailand has stacked up an ambitious set of climate commitments:

• 20% emissions reduction by 2030 (raised to 30–40% in the updated NDC)
• 33% renewable electricity by 2030
• 51% renewable electricity by 2037
• Carbon neutrality by 2050
• Net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065
• Total coal phase-out by 2050

The targets look bold on paper. But look at the current pace. Solar installed capacity stood at roughly 3.4 GW in 2024, per Ember. The AEDP 2024 draft calls for about 39 GW of solar by 2037. That means adding roughly 35 GW of solar in 13 years — or nearly 3 GW per year, every year.

For comparison, Thailand has never installed 3 GW of solar in a single year. The compound annual growth rate needed is around 20%, which is technically achievable — the country has maintained that pace since 2012, per Energy Tracker Asia (2025). But sustaining exponential growth gets harder as the base number gets larger.

How does Thailand compare to its ASEAN peers? Vietnam currently leads Southeast Asia’s renewable power market, followed by Indonesia and the Philippines, according to the IEA’s Southeast Asia Energy Outlook (2024). Thailand’s solar costs are competitive — utility-scale solar runs about $44–50/MWh, comparable to Vietnam — but deployment has been slower.

The estimated price tag? According to Energy Tracker Asia, Thailand will need to mobilize USD 22 billion for renewable energy projects and another USD 28 billion for energy efficiency between 2022 and 2037. That’s a significant capital requirement for a country that currently subsidizes gasoline, diesel, and natural gas.

Key Takeaways

• The gap is enormous. Thailand needs to go from ~20% renewable electricity to 51% by 2037, requiring roughly 50 GW of new clean capacity and 14 GW of storage.
• Gas dominance is the core challenge. Natural gas provides 68% of electricity generation. Replacing that infrastructure takes time, capital, and political will.
• Projects like the ADB-Gulf solar portfolio are real but small. At 649 MW, the 12 projects represent about 1.3% of needed capacity. Hundreds more are required.
• Battery storage is the bottleneck. Without a liberalized ancillary market, utility-scale storage deployment lags behind solar panel installation.
• Feed-in tariffs are competitive but the pipeline is modest. The 5 GW FiT scheme through 2030 will help, but it’s a fraction of the 50 GW target.

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